Thursday, October 18, 2012

2012 Battleground State Poll

(Updated 11-5-2012)
 FINAL ELECTION PREDICTION
ROMNEY 285 EV & OBAMA 253 EV

FINAL POPULAR VOTE PREDICTION
ROMNEY 62,696,229    49.0%
OBAMA 58,137,600      45.4%
What is compiled below, will be the most accurate and scientific poll you will find for the 2012 Presidential election. What most polling firms miss are the level of participation and enthusiasm. Barack Obama won such a decisive victory in 2008 due to the high level of participation and enthusiasm of Democrat voters. Most polling firms are misrepresenting or missing those key components for this year's election. Democrat voter registrations are down in some states as much as 20% in 2012 versus 2008 and voter enthusiasm is higher for Romney voters versus Obama voters. Example: Most polling firms are using a party affiliation in Ohio similar to the turnout in 2008 where DEMS represented 39%, REP 31% and IND 30%. However in the 2010 Midterm elections, Ohio Party breakdown was DEM 37% REP 37% and IND 27%. For our 2012 Predictions we are using a party breakdown of DEM 40.5% , REP 36.5 and IND 23.0%

Used to determine our accurate predictions is a special algorithm that weighs the level of participation and enthusiasm among political parties and voters. Click each state to see the cross tabs and weighted factors.

Battleground State  (115 EC Votes)
Projected Voter Turnout
Projected Obama Vote
Projected Romney Vote
Obama
Romney
2012 Projection
2008
2004
2000
7,850,000
3,745,007
3,855,539
Romney +1.4
Obama +2.8
Bush +5.0
Bush +0.1
5,700,000
2,739,164
2,650,493
Obama +1.6
Obama +10.3
Kerry +2.5
Gore +4.2
5,600,000
2,686,156
2,688,864
Romeny +0.05
Obama +4.6
Bush +2.1
Bush +3.5
3,600,000
1,687,872
1,794,468
Romney +2.9
Obama +6.3
Bush +8.2
Bush +8.1
2,800,000
1,399,321
1,341,123
Obama +2.1
Obama +13.9
Kerry +0.4
Gore +0.2
2,200,000
1,026,348
1,090,239
Romney +2.9
Obama +9.0
Bush +4.7
Bush +8.4
1,400,000
681,886
671,599
Obama +0.7
Obama +9.5
Bush +0.7
Gore +0.3
875,000
424,496
426,703
Romeny +0.26
Obama +12.5
Bush +2.6
Bush +3.5
690,000
321,183
349,154
Romney +4.1
Obama +9.6
Kerry +1.3
Bush +1.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Obama Electoral Vote (253)
Romney Electoral Vote (285)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Solid Obama/Biden (142)
Solid Romney/Ryan (76)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
California (55)
Alabama (9)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
District of Columbia (3)
Arkansas (6)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Illinois (20)
Kansas (6)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Massachusetts (11)
Louisiana (8)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rhode Island (4)
Nebraska (5)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Delaware (3)
Utah (6)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Hawaii (4)
Wyoming (3)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Maryland (10)
Alaska (3)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
New York (29)
Idaho (4)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Vermont (3)
Kentucky (8)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mississippi (6)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Likely Obama/Biden (75)
Oklahoma (7)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Connecticut (7)
West Virginia (5)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Maine (4)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
New Jersey (14)
Likely Romney/Ryan (130)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
New Mexico (5)
Georgia (16)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Washington (12
Montana (3)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Minnesota (10)
North Dakota (3)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Oregon (7)
South Carolina (9)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Michigan (16)
South Dakota (3)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tennessee (11)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Texas (38)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Arizona (11)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tossup Obama/Biden (36)
Indiana (11)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Missouri (10)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
North Carolina (15)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tossup Romney/Ryan (79)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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